By Mary Mostert, Analyst, Original Sources (www.originalsources.com)
March 7, 2000
It appears, from the latest Zogby polls, that George Bush and Al Gore will be the candidates for their parties this fall and pundits already predicting that the election will be won by Al Gore. In fact, some of them are saying that by choosing George W. Bush the Republicans have sealed their doom.
A few days ago it was being quite confidently predicted that John McCain would easily get the popular vote in California with its 162 delegates. However, Zogby shows a drop for McCain from Friday to Monday of 4.4 points - from 24.3% of the vote to 19.9%.
While Al Gore is ahead in the poll with 30.5% of the vote, Bill Bradley shows only 9.8% - a total on a mere 40.3% of the vote.
George W. Bush’s plurality has risen in the last few days, from 25.5% on Friday to 26.4% on Monday.
The total of the Bush, McCain and Keyes votes appear to indicate that the total Republican vote is 44.5%. On Monday 9.7% of the voters were still undecided.
To predict that, eight months from now, that will somehow guarantee a win for the Democrats is quite a stretch. A year ago at this time the same pundits were confidently predicting that in November 2000 irate voters would oust any Congressional candidate who had led the fight to impeach Clinton.
At this point even Al Gore is trying to distance himself from Bill Clinton.
In Connecticut in the same three days the undecided voters has increased from 10.9 to 14.0 percent of the voters, and John McCain has gone from 42.2% of the voters to 37.9% - a loss of 4.3% of the votes he had on Friday.
In Georgia, George W. Bush’s support rose 4% while McCain’s support dropped almost 4%. In Maryland Bush gained 1%, and McCain lost 1% with Bush having a 22 point lead over McCain.
Even in Catholic and liberal Massachusetts, Bush gained a point while McCain, who had hoped to gain support in the Northeast with his attack ads accusing Bush of being anti-Catholic because he spoke at Bob Jones University. However, it is the only state where the Zogby poll shows McCain is ahead of Bush.
In Missouri Bush gained 1.5% and McCain lost 2.6% .
In the New York Republican Primary Bush’s support has LOST 1.2% and McCain has lost 1.8%. Alan Keyes seems to be picking up votes there, with an increase of 1.2% since Friday.
In Ohio Bush held a 25.9% lead over McCain on Friday which was cut to a 25.6% spread by Monday.
It would appear that the voters have quickly tired of McCain claiming to be a "reformer" and one who would not use "attack ads" while cranking out one attack add or attacking statement after another.
John McCain, who approved a script in Washington which was used by callers who called Catholic voters claiming to represent a non-existent group dedicated to fighting anti-Catholics.
In what must be a new low in political sorties, now John McCain has decided to file a complaint with the Federal Election Commission about a TV ad being run by "Republicans for Clean Air," a name being used by Texas software billionaires Sam and Charles Wyly.
It’s a bit puzzling to me why McCain would urge the Federal Communications Commission to take action, saying the ads should not be run until a disclaimer is attached, identifying the Wylys as the sponsors., after McCain had denied being involved in the approval of the script. This does appear to be the pot calling the kettle black.
"We hope the Commission takes strong action against this type of deceptive communications practice that is contrary to the public interest and corrupting our political process," McCain deputy campaign manager Roy Fletcher wrote the FCC.
So what about the deceptive communications with Washington State Catholics? Was that something that should have been reported to the FEC? Of course, the FEC charge by McCain comes just a day before the crucial Super Tuesday primaries.
The McCain campaign contends that Sam Wyly is an authorized fund-raiser for the Bush campaign and therefore not eligible to finance a so-called "independent issue" ad.
Meanwhile, John McCain released an ad yesterday in New York which quotes the liberal Sierra Club as saying "Praising George Bush on clean air is like thanking John Rocker for his contribution to civil rights.
Of course, no mention is made of the fact that Bush’s state of Texas is the home of hundreds of refineries which do tend to pollute but which Bush has worked with to find ways of reducing their pollution.
Why are the media pundits so sure that Gore can handily beat Bush? Because they WANT to believe it and they can’t imagine being wrong. However, in the eight months between now and the actual election, almost anything could happen. So far it appears that John McCain’s belligerent approach and his tendency to define every questionable tactic he uses as "straight talk" when it come from him and abusive campaign tactics if it comes from anyone else.
He has become the candidate we are all supposed to feel sorry for. That’s not what most people are looking for. People want a leader, not a crybaby with a temper.
To comment: mmostert@originalsources.com
To comment: mmostert@originalsources.com
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