By: Mary Mostert, Analyst, Original Sources (www.originalsources.com)
February 21, 2000 (Reprint)
Editor's Note: Over the Labor Day Week-end we were hearing a lot of stories about Al Gore being 4-8 points ahead of George W. Bush. There was gloom in some circles over those stories, because we have been told that "whoever is ahead on Labor Day wins the election." None of the Polls came close to predicting Bush's Double Digit win in South Carolina and a heavy turn-out was supposed to mean defeat. What happened?
In the heaviest voter turn-out in a primary in state history, in the South Carolina primary Saturday, the South Carolina Republican Primary which, according to John Zogby, was a dead heat with a strong possibility of a McCain victory wasn't even close in the heaviest turn-out ever for a primary in the state. According to the McCain camp a heavy turn-out was supposed to mean a McCain victory. It wasn't:
Primary:South Carolina
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What happened? Apparently in the last two to three days of the campaign, quite a lot of people who had not planned on voting decided to vote and about 59% of them decided to vote for George W. Bush. Just twelve days before, following Bush's defeat in New Hampshire, Time Magazine intoned: "But even in the valley of the shadow of death, Bush was talking strategy, not message. He was telling the world that he needed to define his opponent and to show the contrast. So much for moving into substance and staying optimistic."
Why, at the last minute, did so many South Carolinians go to the polls and vote for George W. Bush, rather than the already media coronated John McCain? I think it was largely due to the Debate held on the Larry King Show on February 15th. John McCain did not come across in that debate as a "presidential" figure, the media commentators notwithstanding. While media commentators seemed to welcome the confrontation and conflict, as a "good story," it revealed a rude, petty and negative John McCain that was exactly what the voters don't want. George W. Bush repeated no less than 17 times, "Let me finish!" as McCain constantly interrupted with attacking statements charging Bush with being "negative." Bush tried to rise above the bickering level by saying at least 4 times, "You are a good man, John..." Bush finally pulled out an attack flyer about himself which McCain claimed did not come from his campaign at which point Bush pointed out that it said on the flyer "Paid For by the John McCain" committee.
Alan Keyes, asked by Larry King to comment, said: "Could I say something substantive here? This is going out to 202 countries. Is this really what we want them to hear?" At that point the polls were showing Alan Keyes at about 2% of the vote in South Carolina. He actually got 5%, probably most of it gained by that statement which was re-played many times over the next three days on TV.
Exit polls showed that 38% of the voters had decided in the previous week who they would vote for. Half of those voters had decided in the three days prior to the vote, and AFTER the Larry King Show debate. While McCain tried to portray Bush as the "attacker" more voters, 43% to 35%, believed it was McCain who was doing the attacking and that it was unfair.
While McCain attempted to portray himself as the reformer and the "outside the beltway" candidate, 60% of the voters believe Bush is a reformer, while 53% believe McCain is a reformer.
However, when asked which issue they thought the most important in the campaign - World Affairs, Campaign Finance, Abortion, Social Security, Moral Values, Taxes or Tobacco - a whopping 37% chose Moral values. John McCain got 78% of the votes of people who believe Campaign Finance is the most important issue - but that was only 6% of the voters. However, 55% of the people who believe that moral values are the most important issue voted for George W. Bush. Nine Percent of them voted for Alan Keyes and 36% voted for John McCain.
It is obvious that part of the problem in predicting elections is the fact that a growing number of Americans are agreeing with Alan Keyes - that our real problem is a Moral Crisis. They are not all voting for Keyes, because they don't think he will win. However, Keyes has framed the national debate in a remarkable way and George Bush, by coming across as a moral person, a conservative with compassion, the ability to win and a record of reform outside of the beltway is reaping the benefit.
While the media is touting a "Bush-McCain" ticket, after McCain's bitter, dog-in-the-manger speech conceding the South Carolina vote to George W. Bush, I don't think that would set well with voters who are sick of Republicans self-destructing. Keyes criticism of Bush has been to point out that he is not able to "articulate and defend" his conservative position. His criticism of McCain is that he is "no conservative" and has stated categorically that he would not serve in a McCain administration.
Increasingly a Bush-Keyes ticket is being talked up among people in the grassroots. No one who has heard Keyes in the debates could deny his ability to articulate and defend the conservative position.
Remember when the media was telling us that any Representative or Senator who voted for impeachment or conviction of Clinton would be ousted in the next election? That not only seems absurd at this point, but with "moral issues" becoming the number one issue in the campaign, those who voted for impeachment or conviction are probably going to get a lot of support.
To comment: mmostert@originalsources.com
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