By: Mary Mostert, Analyst, Original Sources
The Los Angeles Times today has a lead story entitled: "Clinton's Leadership Ratings Strong Despite Starr Report." Having spent the last three days trying to cope with a deluge of angry e-mails which tell me the exact opposite, I was curious about how in the world the Los Angeles Times came up with such a statement.
Before going into the results of our two polls, perhaps it is fitting to outline them. My polling data comes from approximately 4000 e-mail sent to members of Congress beginning Friday afternoon, September 11 to Monday afternoon September 14. The Los Angeles Times poll was conducted by telephone calls to 968 adults nationwide on Saturday.
The Los Angeles times noted that their 968 adults participating in their poll "was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus four percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented."
Knowing the LA Times, that probably means the poll had a higher percentage of blacks, women and possibly others who are opposed to anything happening to their fair haired boy in the White House REGARDLESS of what he has done. If the 968 participants reflected the population there would include:
9 - Indian, Eskimo and Aleuts (1)
39 Asian and Pacific Islanders (4%)
106 Hispanics (11%)
126 Blacks (13%)
707 White (73%)
Now, those of you out there who can add, please don't get mad and send me a nasty e-mail. I know that adds up to 988, not 968 people, and the percentages add up to 102%. But, I can't help it. That's what the US Census reports for 1996 in the way of America's racial mix. That probably reflects the fact that some Americans refuse to put themselves in one or another category - like Tiger Woods, who has a Thai mother (Asian) and an African-American father (Black). Then, there are those, like me, who refuse to play the racial identity game and who don't answer stupid questions about the subject.
While the Los Angeles Times headlines, and headlines on television reporting the poll, touts the notion that "The release of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr's report outlining potential grounds for impeaching President Clinton has not diminished Clinton's public support," a careful reading of even the tiny sampling in the LA Times Poll actually doesn't say that. The lead paragraph in the LA Times story says, "Clinton continues to receive a strong job approval rating and is still widely regarded as an effective leader. Furthermore, most Americans consider his relationship with former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, to be a private matter and believe he should neither resign nor be impeached."
People are saying to each other, "Where are all these people? I don't know ANYONE who believes that!" And, I will say that those people who are e-mailing their members of Congress and sending me a copy certainly don't believe that. But then, the people who are e-mailing me are people who have by and large READ the Kenneth Starr Report. And, having read it, that are, to put it bluntly, livid. They are also quite eloquent in their letters to their members of Congress.
So, what does the LA Times Poll have to say about that? Well, buried deep down in the report is the following statement: "Americans who have heard, read, or seen something about the Starr Report are more likely to believe Clinton committed perjury than those who did not (63% to 49%) and they are also more likely to believe that he obstructed justice and tampered with witnesses. Older Americans are also more likely to believe the president committed perjury."
Translated that means that those who actually have some information, rather than media spin, believe that Clinton has committed perjury, obstructed justice and tampered with witnesses. In fact, two thirds of those who actually have some information on the subject, thinks he has committed at least those three felonies.
On Friday, when the resolution was voted on to make the Starr Report available to the public, 63 members of Congress voted against it. Almost half of those voting against information being given the public were members of the Congressional Black Caucus, of which Rep. Maxine Waters is Chairman.
Guess where CNN was interviewing all day Sunday and Monday to find out what the American people think? Yep. Harlem. Black inner city areas of Los Angeles. In fact, I didn't see a single "on the street" interview in which 73% of the people interviewed were white people.
Maxine Waters, who represents the mostly black 35th District in Los Angeles, was questioned on Crossfire yesterday by Bob Novak. She said that the Starr Report was "just Ken Starr's opinion." It is "just a narrative," she claimed. "None of that has been cross-examined."
Novak asked, "The thing I don't understand is that there are so many points where he (President Clinton) seems to be lying. Let me just name one thing. He says, under oath, 'I don't remember whether I was alone in a room with Monica Lewinsky or not.' She said she was in a room with him twenty times and they had corroborating evidence.
Maxine Waters: "How do you know that's what he said?"
Novak: "He said it in his deposition, in the Starr report."
Maxine Waters: "That's what you have. You have the Starr Report.
Novak: "But..that was in the President's deposition..."
Maxine Waters: "I'm sorry. The information has not been cross examined. "
Novak: "Cross examine the information the President said in his own deposition?"
Maxine Waters: "The information has not been cross-examined. When we have the ability, if we go that far, to get at the facts, then perhaps we can find out more information."
This is the caliber of thinking, folks, that is leading the black caucus, which voted AGAINST you having access to the Starr Report. Approximately 15% of the members of Congress voted with Maxine Waters. Considering the level of her thinking, I sort of doubt that most of that 15% will EVER change their minds - since Maxine Waters has already said she won't believe Clinton's own admission of his misconduct.
And, those of us in the media are well aware of the attitudes expressed by Maxine Waters and the Black Congressional Caucus. So, do you actually think that two days of media concentration in Maxine Waters District and in Harlem were just sort of random sampling? Not on your life.
Let's take a peek at a question or two. The LA Times reported, and it is on almost every newspaper front page today, that "Clinton continues to receive a strong job approval rating, with 64% giving him a positive review for the way he is handling his job as president (this number is unchanged from one month ago or from late January when news of the relationship first became public). Even higher proportions--78%--approve of Clinton's handling of the economy."
Looking at the raw poll data, For ALL polled, Democrats Polled, Independents polled, Republican polled, Men polled and Women Polled, we find:
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president
Approve: ALL(64%) DEM(80%) IND(61%) REP(43%) MEN(60%) WOM(67%)
Disapprove: ALL(33%> DEM(18%) IND(35%) Rep(54%) Men(37%) WOM(29%
Don't know ALL(3%) DEM(2%) IND(4%) REP(3%) MEN(3%) WOM(4%)
9. What is your impression of Bill Clinton?
Favorable ALL(51%) DEM(69%) IND(52%) REP(26%) MEN(52%) WOM(50%)
Unfavorable All(44%) DEM(29%) IND(40%) REP(73%) MEN(45%) WOM(44%)
Haven't heard enough ALL(3%) DEM(1%) IND(5%) REP(1%) MEN(3%)
So, now that you know the opinions of a group of 968 unidentified Americans throughout the nation who participated in the Los Angeles Time Poll, and you know the opinions of the approximately 4000 Americans throughout the nation who send me copies of their e-mails - ALL of whom have demanded that they either get Clinton to resign or to oust him through impeachment, what do you know about the disposition of the case of Bill Clinton?
Atually, probably not a whole lot. It's sort of interesting that the LA Times poll shows, for the first time, that women have a less favorable view of Clinton than men. However, this is a matter which is not going to be settled as the result of a newspaper poll. It is going to be settled based on law, Maxine Waters notwithstanding. One thing that is reasonably certain is that the majority of the Members of the House of Representative are going to actually READ the Starr Report. I wouldn't bet on the Black Caucus reading it - and, if they aren't going to believe what Clinton says when he says something they don't want to hear, it probably doesn't make much difference whether they read it or not.
Even the Los Angeles Times poll indicates that almost two thirds of those who actually have heard about, read about or have read the report believe the President has committed a series of felonies. There is less than two months before the November mid-term elections. The sixty three members of Congress who voted against allowing the American people to read the report, which, as many have told me, THEY paid for are all up for re-election. Contrary to what the elite media is trying to convince you of, the election is going to turn on how those nearly two-thirds of the American people feel about all this on election day.
And, folks, you will note that there has been almost no reporting of what the people are saying to their members of Congress about the President. However, I can tell you categorically that the reason why so many Democrats, like Barbara Boxer and others who are in tight races are suddenly finding their voice and suggesting that, perhaps, Bill Clinton has done a no-no is because of all those letters, e-mails and telephone calls you are not hearing about on TV.
The media has done such a great job of misinformation on this issue, and the LA Times poll in today's papers is a prime example of that misinformation, that a great many of the e-mails I am seeing are urging their Senators and Representatives to "vote for integrity, regardless of what the polls say." Those who are angry and upset over what has been going on in the White House believe they are in the minority.
You aren't. But, now is the time to become active, if you have not been before. What is at stake here, to put it bluntly, is whether or not this nation can continue to be a nation built of the rule of law, not the rule of a man or an elite group. Read the Starr Report, then check out the candidates for the November election. Insist on knowing what they plan to do, if elected, about the Impeachment of Bill Clinton.
(To find the Websites of candidates in your state go to http://www.originalsources.com. If your state is having its primary today, the Websites will be up as soon as information is available, but most states are already up. Nearly all candidates can be contacted either by e-mail, or telephone, from Original Sources.)
To comment: mmostert@originalsources.com